Gold Could Rise Next Week As Bounce Could Continue

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04 February 2010, 02:58 p.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/

(Kitco News) - Gold appears to have put in a near-term bottom with this week’s bounce and that could allow the yellow metal to rise again next week.

The rally helped to halt a decline the market experienced for January and early February, market watchers said.

“It looks like we did put a bottom in gold. January and February are not hot times for gold. Last year, we had a much more severe setback,” said Sterling Smith, commodity trading adviser and market analyst with Country Hedging.

April gold prices on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,349 an ounce, down $4 on the day, but up 0.5% on the week. March silver settled at $29.059 an ounce, up 4.1% on the week.

Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, said it was important for gold to hold the 150-day moving average. Gold prices fell to $1,307.70, as measured on a daily continuation chart, just above $1,305.50, which is where the average was that day. “It’s remarkable the way it held,” he said.

This technical-chart point has proven in the past be to be important for gold.

“In late July, it tested it and we had a huge rally. In February it held it and in March we had a big rally. The last time we were below, it was the big crash,” Hackett said, noting in July 2008 gold broke the 150-day moving average for the first time in a long time and not long afterward fell 35%.

The last time gold prices were under this average was in January 2009. “Until that breaks, the bull is still on,” he said.

Hackett added that the unrest in Egypt has given gold new life.

“As long as the Middle East remains unsettled, gold’s interim lows are in place. Gold was going down and was starting to do some serious technical damage, but now there’s a new reason to buy gold. The Middle East is bullish for gold and Uncle Ben (Bernanke) is still having a lot of fun,” Hackett said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s second quantitative easing program.

Smith said the market will watch if there is any contagion regarding the political unrest in Egypt, but suggested the bullish case for gold could be limited if the strife does not spread to any other countries. “The Egyptian political situation makes people nervous, but revolutions are not good economically. It takes away a bit of the inflation argument. I don’t see Egypt by itself (as bullish) but if we see it spreading… that situation could be quite bullish for gold. The markets would be nervous about crude oil flow, or God forbid, terrorism,” he said.

Smith said next week’s U.S. economic calendar is light, so any market-moving events would likely have to come from overseas. He did note that China will continue to be closed for its New Year celebrations, so without Chinese buying, that could put a drag on gold prices.

He said for next week, resistance for April gold comes in at $1,370. Barclays Capital technicians said a break above resistance in the $1,400 area “would confirm our bullish view and prompt a re-test of the $1,432 all-time high. Our greater targets remain in the $1,460-$1,485 area,” they said.

Smith said the $1,400 area is feasible in the first quarter, but between the Chinese New Year and the Presidents’ Day holiday in mid-February in the U.S., it might be difficult to reach that area so quickly.

Silver is beginning to benefit from the all-time highs reached in the copper market, Smith said, and the technical chart patterns should support the gray metal. “Silver should have a solid week. There’s resistance at $29.81 to $30. If we break that then we could test $31,” he said.

Barclays said its also looks for silver to break above $30 and resume gains through the recent high of $31.26.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

Sumber: http://www.kitco.com/reports

Why have top gold ETF holders been selling?

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Alongside the falling gold price we have watched shareholders in the U.S. gold ETF, SPDR selling nearly 100 tonnes of gold over the last few weeks.   The selling of gold has come from the U.S. and mainly seen at the Fixes in London at 10.30 a.m. London time or 3.00 p.m. 

When shareholders sell their shares the custodian HSBC is tasked with selling the fund's gold holding against these sales.   As one of the five members of the Gold Fixing in London, where 90% of the world's physical gold is traded, this would be the ideal market in which to sell this gold.   This is why the two daily Fixes are where the current gold price is being made.   But why are U.S. gold Investors in the SPDR gold ETF selling their gold [shares]?

SELLING FROM THE SPDR GOLD ETF
The main shareholders in the SPDR gold ETF are U.S. institutions or wealthy individuals.   The holdings in the SPDR gold ETF have, since its inception, steadily risen with barely 1% of the holders selling at any time.   That is until the last few weeks.   We have seen around 7.5% of the holding sold, but with the occasional large buy order going in [20 tonnes at one point] then overwhelmed by more selling.

 Possible reasons why
There is no way sellers would come out into the open and state why they had bought or why they had sold their shares, except to say they felt it was time to buy or time to sell.   We therefore have to look at the possible reasons why they have done so.   Here are some of those reasons: -

·         There is growing confidence in the U.S. economy accompanied by the belief that this will allow interest rates to rise, making U.S. fixed interest securities more attractive than gold.   The comments from the Federal Reserve scotched those reasons saying that the recovery was disappointingly slow.

·         The warnings to the U.S. and Japan given by ratings agencies and the I.M.F. that they must urgently cut their deficits or be in danger of downgrading [Japan has already], could lead to lenders looking for higher returns on Treasuries, which would ripple into the U.S. interest rate picture.   Higher interest rates may lead to a belief that the dollar will be more attractive against gold.   We would comment that interest rates rising, to contain overheating, is healthy, but interest rates rising because of poor credit ratings is an entirely different matter.

·         Technical picture points down.   We find that some Technical analysts have been calling that a top has been made and gold has had its day.   Other analysts state this is just a correction and a subsequent rise will follow.   You pay your money and you make your choice.

·         Large U.S. investors are selling these U.S. based shares, whose gold is in the hands of a bank [licensed by the Fed] that could if required to do so, under a ‘confiscation order', hand the gold to the Fed, to buy physical gold bullion overseas for safer keeping.   This may well be so.   However, the fall in the price of gold implies that these positions are being closed out.

·         U.S. institutions may well feel that the equity market will discount a recovering future and present better opportunities than gold does from now on.   U.S. investors are more inclined to the optimistic way forward, however a glance across the potential damage the growing sovereign debt crisis could inflict points to more of what we've had in the last three years.   While markets are not, in our view, in danger of collapsing, nor are currencies, we find it difficult to overlay a rosy hue on the future.

HOW DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD FEEL ABOUT GOLD?
-          Certainly Asia continues to believe that gold is real money and wants to buy it for financial security.   Its growing buying power implies that it may well prove to be the dominant force in the gold market from now on.

-         Central Banks will continue to buy for their reserves.   This week Russia announced that it will be buying 100 tonnes of gold per annum going forward.   This may well err on the low side for Russia has been buying more than that for the last two years from growing local production.

-         We are of the opinion that the People's Bank of China is following the same course but hidden from the public's eye.

-         Jewelry demand is rising back to the levels seen in the past, making up the single largest element of demand in the gold market.

-         Europeans have been buyers of gold in the past year as the prospect of a Eurozone default could have endangered the euro itself.   We do not believe that the danger has passed but some European institutions may well feel that.   They may have had holdings in the U.S. SPDR gold ETF, believing liquidity is better there.

-         Industrial and Technological demand is rising steadily and will continue to do so for gold, although only a small but critical part of new devices that is price insensitive.

Overall we believe that the fundamentals of gold remain extremely positive.

Julian Phillips is a long term analyst of the global gold and silver markets and is the founder and principal contributor for Global Watch - Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com and Silver Forecaster - www.silverforecaster.com

Sumber: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=119441&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Gold price growth to slow in 2011

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Tak semua ramalan tepat dan tak semua melencong. Tapi harga emas tetap mahal untuk jangka masa panjang. Di sini sedikit info;

Author: Heidi Lee 

The gold price is likely to rise at a much slower pace compared to the previous two years, at a rate of around 2.1%, according to Standard Chartered.

Will Leung, investment strategist, wealth management, Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), expects gold to trade at between $1,300 to $1,500 per ounce in 2011. He explained the gold price had already surged 29.5% and 24.4% in 2010 and 2009 respectively, meaning there was a relatively smaller chance for the commodity to rise significantly in 2011.

Leung expects the US dollar to put in a stronger performance in the first half, backed by positive data such as a surprising lower rate of unemployment. He suggests investors look to US stocks for opportunities over the next three months.

Meanwhile, the strategist says Asian currencies will continue to perform positively this year, with the Taiwan dollar and Korean won outperforming other Asian denominations.

In addition, the bank expects China will raise interest rates three times in the first half of 2011, which could put pressure on the A-share market. However, he believes stock markets in both China and Hong Kong will perform better in H2 compared to H1.

Sumber: http://www.professionaladviser.com.hk/