Salam sahabat emas. Sedikit perkongsian info tentang penjualan emas secara besar-besaran. mari kita ikutinya;
Alongside the falling gold price we have watched shareholders in the U.S. gold ETF, SPDR selling nearly 100 tonnes of gold over the last few weeks. The selling of gold has come from the U.S. and mainly seen at the Fixes in London at 10.30 a.m. London time or 3.00 p.m.
When shareholders sell their shares the custodian HSBC is tasked with selling the fund's gold holding against these sales. As one of the five members of the Gold Fixing in London, where 90% of the world's physical gold is traded, this would be the ideal market in which to sell this gold. This is why the two daily Fixes are where the current gold price is being made. But why are U.S. gold Investors in the SPDR gold ETF selling their gold [shares]?
SELLING FROM THE SPDR GOLD ETF
The main shareholders in the SPDR gold ETF are U.S. institutions or wealthy individuals. The holdings in the SPDR gold ETF have, since its inception, steadily risen with barely 1% of the holders selling at any time. That is until the last few weeks. We have seen around 7.5% of the holding sold, but with the occasional large buy order going in [20 tonnes at one point] then overwhelmed by more selling.
Possible reasons why
There is no way sellers would come out into the open and state why they had bought or why they had sold their shares, except to say they felt it was time to buy or time to sell. We therefore have to look at the possible reasons why they have done so. Here are some of those reasons: -
· There is growing confidence in the U.S. economy accompanied by the belief that this will allow interest rates to rise, making U.S. fixed interest securities more attractive than gold. The comments from the Federal Reserve scotched those reasons saying that the recovery was disappointingly slow.
· The warnings to the U.S. and Japan given by ratings agencies and the I.M.F. that they must urgently cut their deficits or be in danger of downgrading [Japan has already], could lead to lenders looking for higher returns on Treasuries, which would ripple into the U.S. interest rate picture. Higher interest rates may lead to a belief that the dollar will be more attractive against gold. We would comment that interest rates rising, to contain overheating, is healthy, but interest rates rising because of poor credit ratings is an entirely different matter.
· Technical picture points down. We find that some Technical analysts have been calling that a top has been made and gold has had its day. Other analysts state this is just a correction and a subsequent rise will follow. You pay your money and you make your choice.
· Large U.S. investors are selling these U.S. based shares, whose gold is in the hands of a bank [licensed by the Fed] that could if required to do so, under a ‘confiscation order', hand the gold to the Fed, to buy physical gold bullion overseas for safer keeping. This may well be so. However, the fall in the price of gold implies that these positions are being closed out.
· U.S. institutions may well feel that the equity market will discount a recovering future and present better opportunities than gold does from now on. U.S. investors are more inclined to the optimistic way forward, however a glance across the potential damage the growing sovereign debt crisis could inflict points to more of what we've had in the last three years. While markets are not, in our view, in danger of collapsing, nor are currencies, we find it difficult to overlay a rosy hue on the future.
HOW DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD FEEL ABOUT GOLD?
- Certainly Asia continues to believe that gold is real money and wants to buy it for financial security. Its growing buying power implies that it may well prove to be the dominant force in the gold market from now on.
- Central Banks will continue to buy for their reserves. This week Russia announced that it will be buying 100 tonnes of gold per annum going forward. This may well err on the low side for Russia has been buying more than that for the last two years from growing local production.
- We are of the opinion that the People's Bank of China is following the same course but hidden from the public's eye.
- Jewelry demand is rising back to the levels seen in the past, making up the single largest element of demand in the gold market.
- Europeans have been buyers of gold in the past year as the prospect of a Eurozone default could have endangered the euro itself. We do not believe that the danger has passed but some European institutions may well feel that. They may have had holdings in the U.S. SPDR gold ETF, believing liquidity is better there.
- Industrial and Technological demand is rising steadily and will continue to do so for gold, although only a small but critical part of new devices that is price insensitive.
Overall we believe that the fundamentals of gold remain extremely positive.
Julian Phillips is a long term analyst of the global gold and silver markets and is the founder and principal contributor for Global Watch - Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com and Silver Forecaster - www.silverforecaster.com
Sumber: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=119441&sn=Detail&pid=102055
PELUANG BERNIAGA
Monday, January 31, 2011
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Egypt protests lift gold, oil in New York
Salam sahabat emas, tunjuk perasaan di Egypt semakin merebak. Perintah berkurung dari beberapa wilayah kepada seluruh wilayah Egypt. Husni Mubarak masih pertahankan jawatannya walau dikecam hebat rakyatnya. Semoga Egypt kembali aman, Ameen.
Namun, disebalik kekacauan di Egypt, harga pasaran emas melonjak sedikit, berikut penjelasannya;
SINGAPORE (Commodity Online) : Gold and oil prices received a surprise help from anti Mubarak protests in Egypt as both finished higher for the week on Friday in New York.
Gold futures on the Comex jumped the most since Nov. 4 as gold for February delivery added $27.50, or 2.1%, to $1,345.90 an ounce while most active gold contract for April delivery surged $21.9 , or 1.7 percent, to $1,341.7 an ounce.
Spot silver rose 3.5 per cent to $US27.82 an ounce.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for March, soared $3.70 to $89.34 a barrel, a 4.3 per cent rise for the day while Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March surged $2.03 to $99.42 per barrel at the end of London trade.
Analysts said both these hot commodities are always linked to any major geo-political tensions around the world. For oil, it's fear of contagion to neighboring oil-rich countries. For gold, it has spurred flight-to-safety buying, they added.
Oil prices were also pushed upward by news that the US economy grew at its fastest clip in five years in 2010.
They said the precious yellow metal gained the most as violent protests in Egypt buoyed up investor's demand for the relative safety of the precious metal.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak called out the army and declared a largely ignored curfew on Friday, as tens of thousands of protesters rampaged through the streets of major cities demanding his ouster.
Gold futures on the Comex jumped the most since Nov. 4 as gold for February delivery added $27.50, or 2.1%, to $1,345.90 an ounce while most active gold contract for April delivery surged $21.9 , or 1.7 percent, to $1,341.7 an ounce.
Spot silver rose 3.5 per cent to $US27.82 an ounce.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for March, soared $3.70 to $89.34 a barrel, a 4.3 per cent rise for the day while Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March surged $2.03 to $99.42 per barrel at the end of London trade.
Analysts said both these hot commodities are always linked to any major geo-political tensions around the world. For oil, it's fear of contagion to neighboring oil-rich countries. For gold, it has spurred flight-to-safety buying, they added.
Oil prices were also pushed upward by news that the US economy grew at its fastest clip in five years in 2010.
They said the precious yellow metal gained the most as violent protests in Egypt buoyed up investor's demand for the relative safety of the precious metal.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak called out the army and declared a largely ignored curfew on Friday, as tens of thousands of protesters rampaged through the streets of major cities demanding his ouster.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Gold price growth to slow in 2011
Assalamualaikum dan salam sahabat emas, ada sedikit perkongsian info tentang emas. Kita boleh mengambil info dari apa jua kajian dan analisis.Tak semua ramalan tepat dan tak semua melencong. Tapi harga emas tetap mahal untuk jangka masa panjang. Di sini sedikit info;
Author: Heidi Lee
The gold price is likely to rise at a much slower pace compared to the previous two years, at a rate of around 2.1%, according to Standard Chartered.
Will Leung, investment strategist, wealth management, Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), expects gold to trade at between $1,300 to $1,500 per ounce in 2011. He explained the gold price had already surged 29.5% and 24.4% in 2010 and 2009 respectively, meaning there was a relatively smaller chance for the commodity to rise significantly in 2011.
Leung expects the US dollar to put in a stronger performance in the first half, backed by positive data such as a surprising lower rate of unemployment. He suggests investors look to US stocks for opportunities over the next three months.
Meanwhile, the strategist says Asian currencies will continue to perform positively this year, with the Taiwan dollar and Korean won outperforming other Asian denominations.
In addition, the bank expects China will raise interest rates three times in the first half of 2011, which could put pressure on the A-share market. However, he believes stock markets in both China and Hong Kong will perform better in H2 compared to H1.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Investment bubble can take gold to $8,000/oz
Salam sahabat emas, percayakah anda??? ada pendapat mengatakan bahawa emas akan menjejaki us$8000/oz. Jika ianya benar-benar terjadi, bagaimana perasaan anda ketika itu? Maka perasaan sebegitu akan hanya dirasai kepada mereka yang telah lama menyimpan emas. Mari kita ikuti artikel ini!!!
By Bill BonnerThe supply of paper currencies is infinite; the supply of gold is finite. This striking contrast provides an excellent reason to exchange the former for the latter, writes Rob Marstrand, chief investment strategist for the Bonner & Partners Family Office.
The gold supply is limited...very limited. According to one estimate, all the above-ground gold in the world totals between 120,000 and 140,000 metric tonnes. Let's split the difference and call it 130,000 metric tonnes (about 4.2 billion troy ounces). If you brought it all together and made it into a gigantic cube, it would measure about 19 meters along each side – about three meters short of the length of a tennis court.
Furthermore, about 20% to 25% of all the gold is stored in the world's central banks as country reserves. So the total amount of gold in private hands is enough for just 14 grams for each living person – that's less than half the quantity of a standard one-ounce coin like a US Gold Eagle or a South African Krugerrand Gold Coin.
At present, only about 2.25% of the world's total wealth – or 4.5% of world's financial wealth – is allocated to gold, including jewelry. But resurgent inflation could raise that percentage dramatically, while raising the Gold Price dramatically in the process.
To gain perspective, let's examine a brief history of the Gold Price relative to US inflation. The Gold Price peaked in January 1980 at $850 per ounce. But this peak was very brief. Gold jumped 29% alone in the run towards $660. Probably a better reference point for the market top is the average price during 1980 as a whole. This was $615/oz. Since then, the Gold Price has increased only 125%.
Over the same timespan, however, the government's most widely quoted inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased 185%. Therefore, if the Gold Price had increased as much as the CPI, it would be selling for $1753/oz today, not $1390/oz. But the official inflation figures might not be the real story.
Using alternative inflation figures calculated by ShadowStats.com, consumer prices have soared an astounding 789% since 1980, which means that the inflation- adjusted Gold Price would be $5,467/oz.
Interestingly, if we look at the market bottoms for gold – 1970 and 2001 – instead of the market tops, the ShadowStats data seem to provide a much more accurate inflation gauge than the CPI. For example, in January 1970 – before gold's 10-year bull run – the price of gold was just $35/oz. Thirty-one years later – after soaring to more than $800 an ounce in 1980 – the big bear market in gold bottomed out at $256/oz. And the average price for 2001 was $271/oz.
Therefore, during this 31-year period – through gold's full bull and bear market cycle – the Gold Price advanced 674%. Over the same timeframe, the ShadowStats inflation measure advanced a nearly identical 688%. By contrast, the CPI increased only 370% during this period. In other words, the cumulative CPI readings from 1970 to 2001 failed to account for all the inflation indicated by the rising Gold Price. The ShadowStats figures, on the other hand, were pretty much bang on target.
I'm staying conservative, and there's nothing to suggest that just because using the ShadowStats inflation worked for the bear market lows it will work for the bull market highs. But if the ShadowStats figures above are a guide, then maybe they point to a price north of $5,000/oz for gold – or even $7,000 for a short time.
I've just thrown a lot of numbers at you. But the point is this: gold looks like it has plenty of upside. But let's be really clear about one thing. I'm not making a hard prediction or setting a price target here. These figures just provide reference points. We also need to watch out for gold "going mainstream" – when references make their way into TV programs, when taxi drivers start talking to you about gold and when your mother calls to ask how to buy an ounce of the stuff.
I can easily see gold getting into the $2000/oz to $3,000/oz range in the next few years – maybe higher. And there's a very real possibility that we'll have a short-term spike – a genuine investment bubble – that takes us into the $5,000/oz to $8,000/oz.
None of this is certain. And it most likely won't happen smoothly. There could even be big corrections along the way – like between December 1974 and August 1976 when gold fell 47% before powering ahead again. But I hope I've shown you that there are good reasons to think that gold still has plenty of room on the upside.
The gold supply is limited...very limited. According to one estimate, all the above-ground gold in the world totals between 120,000 and 140,000 metric tonnes. Let's split the difference and call it 130,000 metric tonnes (about 4.2 billion troy ounces). If you brought it all together and made it into a gigantic cube, it would measure about 19 meters along each side – about three meters short of the length of a tennis court.
Furthermore, about 20% to 25% of all the gold is stored in the world's central banks as country reserves. So the total amount of gold in private hands is enough for just 14 grams for each living person – that's less than half the quantity of a standard one-ounce coin like a US Gold Eagle or a South African Krugerrand Gold Coin.
At present, only about 2.25% of the world's total wealth – or 4.5% of world's financial wealth – is allocated to gold, including jewelry. But resurgent inflation could raise that percentage dramatically, while raising the Gold Price dramatically in the process.
To gain perspective, let's examine a brief history of the Gold Price relative to US inflation. The Gold Price peaked in January 1980 at $850 per ounce. But this peak was very brief. Gold jumped 29% alone in the run towards $660. Probably a better reference point for the market top is the average price during 1980 as a whole. This was $615/oz. Since then, the Gold Price has increased only 125%.
Over the same timespan, however, the government's most widely quoted inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has increased 185%. Therefore, if the Gold Price had increased as much as the CPI, it would be selling for $1753/oz today, not $1390/oz. But the official inflation figures might not be the real story.
Using alternative inflation figures calculated by ShadowStats.com, consumer prices have soared an astounding 789% since 1980, which means that the inflation- adjusted Gold Price would be $5,467/oz.
Interestingly, if we look at the market bottoms for gold – 1970 and 2001 – instead of the market tops, the ShadowStats data seem to provide a much more accurate inflation gauge than the CPI. For example, in January 1970 – before gold's 10-year bull run – the price of gold was just $35/oz. Thirty-one years later – after soaring to more than $800 an ounce in 1980 – the big bear market in gold bottomed out at $256/oz. And the average price for 2001 was $271/oz.
Therefore, during this 31-year period – through gold's full bull and bear market cycle – the Gold Price advanced 674%. Over the same timeframe, the ShadowStats inflation measure advanced a nearly identical 688%. By contrast, the CPI increased only 370% during this period. In other words, the cumulative CPI readings from 1970 to 2001 failed to account for all the inflation indicated by the rising Gold Price. The ShadowStats figures, on the other hand, were pretty much bang on target.
I'm staying conservative, and there's nothing to suggest that just because using the ShadowStats inflation worked for the bear market lows it will work for the bull market highs. But if the ShadowStats figures above are a guide, then maybe they point to a price north of $5,000/oz for gold – or even $7,000 for a short time.
I've just thrown a lot of numbers at you. But the point is this: gold looks like it has plenty of upside. But let's be really clear about one thing. I'm not making a hard prediction or setting a price target here. These figures just provide reference points. We also need to watch out for gold "going mainstream" – when references make their way into TV programs, when taxi drivers start talking to you about gold and when your mother calls to ask how to buy an ounce of the stuff.
I can easily see gold getting into the $2000/oz to $3,000/oz range in the next few years – maybe higher. And there's a very real possibility that we'll have a short-term spike – a genuine investment bubble – that takes us into the $5,000/oz to $8,000/oz.
None of this is certain. And it most likely won't happen smoothly. There could even be big corrections along the way – like between December 1974 and August 1976 when gold fell 47% before powering ahead again. But I hope I've shown you that there are good reasons to think that gold still has plenty of room on the upside.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Emas Dijangka Mencecah US$1500/oz !!!
Assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera, sedikit perkongsian tentang jangkaan harga emas akan mencecah US$1500. Nilai yang tertinggi tahun ini. Jadi kepada para peminat emas, jangan tunggu lagi!!! Ayuh! beli emas!!
Poh Kong jangka harga emas meningkat ke US$1,500 tahun ini
Poh Kong jangka harga emas meningkat ke US$1,500 tahun ini
Saturday, January 1, 2011
What's Driving Gold?
Assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera, sedikit perkongsian tentang faktor-faktor kenaikkan harga emas di pasaran. Emas semakin hari semakin meningkat nilainya.
Jika 15 tahun dahulu kita sudah menyimpan emas, maka hari ini kita dapat menikmati hasilnya. Jika 15 tahun dahulu kita menyimpan wang kertas, maka hari ini kita dapat menyaksikan bagaimana nilainya.
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