Major Of Survey Participant See Gold Rising Next Week

Friday March 30, 2012 12:09 PM 

Higher prices are expected in the gold market next week, according to a survey of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those 22 participants, 13 see prices up, while six see prices down, and three are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Several of those looking for higher prices next week cited technical chart factors. Mark Leibovit, editor of VR Gold Newsletter, said he favors gold, in part based on the calendar. 

“Seasonal trends into May are positive, so I'm giving the upside the benefit of the doubt,” Leibovit said.

Phil Streible, senior commodities broker at R.J. O’Brien, also offered a firmer outlook based on technical charts. “Gold prices should start to rally after holding key levels at $1,650 and $1,635, we would expect resistance near $1,680 the 200-day moving average and $1,700 (the psychological level),” he said. 

Those who see weaker prices said the continued lack of physical demand is putting weight on prices. The Indian jeweler strike persists and Chinese buying has been lackluster, analysts said. Further, with no bullish news to drive investors into gold, the metal could soften further.

The few neutral participants are staying on the sidelines, looking for a trend to be established.

Source; http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_march30.2012.html

Is gold overpriced relative to other commodities?

Gold stocks are quite popular among hedge funds these days, and with good reason. John Paulson , who is very bullish about gold, made $5 billion by betting on gold in 2010. As of December 31, 2011, the largest position in the 13F portfolio of his Paulson & Co was the gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust GLD -1.06% , in which Paulson had over $2.6 billion invested. 

Besides Paulson, there were 55 other money managers bullish about SPDR Gold Trust. In total, they had $8.2 billion invested in the position. 

Another gold ETF, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX -1.96% , was also popular with hedge funds. It was held by 41 hedge funds at the end of last year. In addition to ETFs, hedge funds were also bullish about companies engaged in producing gold, such as Barrick Gold Corporation ABX -1.48% and Newmont Mining Corp NEM -1.89% . There were over 40 hedge funds with these two positions in their 13F portfolios at the end of 2011. 

For instance, David Einhorn 's Greenlight Capital had $60+ million invested in Barrick while Jim Simons ' Renaissance Technologies had nearly $90 million invested in Newmont. Other gold stocks with significant hedge fund interest are Goldcorp GG -1.24% , Kinross Gold KGC -1.72% , Allied Nevada Gold ANV -0.29% , and AngloGold Ashanti AU -4.48% . 

But, is gold truly worth investing in? Or, is it overpriced relative to other commodities? Let's check it out by comparing the historical prices of the gold and commodity indexes. 

We are going to use spot gold prices and two commodity indexes: S&P GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) and CCI (Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index). S&P GSCI is a broad-based index mainly weighted in energy (80%), agriculture (10%), industrial metals (6%), and precious metals (2%). CCI is comprised of 17 commodity futures that are continuously rebalanced to maintain equal weighting. Unlike GSCI, which can overweight the energy sector, CCI provides relatively even exposure to all commodity subgroups (energy 18%, metals 24%, soft commodities 29%, and agriculture 29%).

Gold vs. GSCI

We collected daily data points of spot gold prices and GSCI from January 8, 1991 to March 23, 2012 and plotted the values we obtained (see the graph of gold price vs. GSCI ). Gold price and GSCI tracked each other closely before late 2008. After that, the price of gold went up rapidly while GSCI grew at a relatively slow pace. As a result, the gold-price-to-GSCI ratio has gone up to a higher level in recent years. As of March 23, 2012, the gold-price-to-GSCI ratio is 2.37, 25% lower than its peak of 3.18 on February 23, 2009 but still 35% higher than its historical average of 1.75.

Gold vs. CCI

Gold looks a bit overpriced compared with other commodities when using GSCI, an index that has higher weight on energy. Now, let's compare the gold price with an equally weighted commodity index, CCI. Similarly, we collected daily data points of gold prices and CCI from December 29, 1978 to March 23, 2012.Gold prices grew abnormally high in January 1980 to about $850 per ounce due to high inflation, high oil prices, and the termination of the direct convertibility of the dollar to gold. The price of gold has also gone up much faster than CCI since late 2008. Therefore, the gold-price-to-CCI ratio has a peak of 3.02 on December 7, 2011 and it also reached 2.93 earlier on January 21, 1980. As of March 23, 2012, the ratio is 2.89 which is 74% higher than its historical average of 1.66 (see the gold/CCI graph ). 

Overall, the price of gold has been on an uphill trend over the past decade, but it grew much more rapidly than other commodities only in recent years. Gold market is very liquid and it also doesn't cost a lot to store it. Gold supply is also pretty inelastic, which makes it a good long-term play on inflation. These may be the reasons why investors preferred gold over other commodities. Our calculations showed that gold is overpriced relative to other commodities. This doesn't mean that gold prices are going to go down though. Considering that there were no supply side shocks after September 2008 that would explain the 100% increase in gold prices relative to commodities, we think investors would be better off by betting on commodities and shorting gold. 

Source; http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-gold-overpriced-relative-to-other-commodities-2012-03-29

Dollar the underlying tide in gold price performance

A re-emphasis that the gold price is primarily dependent on the intrinsic value of the U.S. dollar and moves like waves on a seashore around an incoming, or outgoing tide.

Perception makes prices not realities in the very short-term and traders in the developed markets of the world decide the short-term level of prices. In the past we have used an analogy of the seashore to describe this situation. The currents and the tides are the deciding factors on whether there is a flowing or ebb tide and current. But on the seashore itself this is difficult to see except by looking at the waterline. Waves go in and out some further than others irrespective of the direction of the tide. Now add to this the wind, which can whip up the size of the waves and the surf. Add some spray and you can see a furious display by the waves, but they remain under the dominance of the tides, no matter how furious they get. Such is the gold market.

The news that Fed Chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke will keep accommodative policies in place to further encourage the recovery sparked the latest surge in the gold price in New York but as we have said many times before, the state of the U.S. economy is not a major fundamental factor in the gold price. It is the state of the U.S. dollar in terms of value and structure that remains the underlying tide in the gold price, together with demand from the emerging world.

In India the jewelers strike is on again as they object to the government's duty hikes. The recent move to reduce tariff value has been termed an infinitesimal gesture. Over the weekend, the Indian government has reduced the import tariff value of gold by 7.50%. Though the announcement was made through a notification from the Ministry of Finance, the small reduction will not counter the impact of increased customs duty.  

History shows that the government eventually backs off their position because the gold market is far more that just a gold market. It is a fundamental aspect of Indian financial life with strong doses of religion and family thrown in. This means it affects votes. We expect the government to again back track on its position.

Source; http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=148252&sn=Detail&pid=34

Precious Metals Surrender Gains, Settle Fractionally Lower

Gold and silver futures settled with small losses on Tuesday after trading modestly higher this morning.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose to $1,696.90 per ounce this morning before closing down by $0.70, or less than 0.1%, at $1,684.90 per ounce.

Silver futures, per the May COMEX contract, fell from an intra-day high of $33.19 to end lower by $0.13, or 0.4%, at $32.62 per ounce.

While precious metals finished slightly in the red, the U.S. Dollar Index held near unchanged at 79.01 this afternoon.

Other precious metals were mixed, with platinum futures climbing $10.80, or 0.7%, to $1,657.50 per ounce and palladium sliding $5.75, or 0.9%, to $663.00 per ounce.

Source; http://www.goldalert.com/2012/03/precious-metals-surrender-gains-settle-fractionally-lower/

“Misguided, Semi-Psychotic” Fed Policies Fueling “Bubble in Risky Assets”

“By creating enormous amounts of paper, and hoarding higher duration securities like Treasury securities, the Fed is trying to force investors into risky assets until the prospective returns on all competing assets are driven so low that investors and banks holding cash are willing to just sit on it. In short, the Fed has focused its efforts on creating a bubble in risky assets, on the misguided, semi-psychotic, and empirically disprovable notion that this will make people feel wealthier and get them to spend and borrow – despite the fact that their incomes can’t support it without massive government transfer payments.”

The above commentary is from the Hussman Funds’ latest Weekly Market Comment, entitled “A False Sense of Security.”

As is evident from the content, Dr. John Hussman is not a big fan of Ben Bernanke and his monetary policies.  In his piece, the long-time Fed critic and investor discussed his particularly dire outlook for the markets in light of “an unusually hostile set of indicator syndromes, most notably, an ‘overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields’ syndrome that has historically been unfavorable for stocks regardless of prevailing Fed policy or trend-following indicators.”

Other noteworthy items from Hussman included:

The upshot is that if investors are willing to believe (without the use of off-label hallucinogens) that current profit margins are the new normal, and will be sustained indefinitely, then Wall Street’s valuations based on current and forward earnings estimates can be taken at face value. This assumption of a permanently high plateau in profit margins is quietly embedded into every discussion of “forward earnings” here.

As a side note, analysts continue bemoan the “inexplicable” gap between the economic malaise of “Main Street” and the optimism of Wall Street. Compare the previous graph to the one below, which shows how the “Muppets” are doing (and people wonder why I’m cynical about corporate culture). An economy that is this far out of balance is one that is unlikely to avoid toppling over to some extent. Capitalism and free markets work, and America remains the most creative and innovative nation on the planet, but until policy makers and regulators wake up, it will be impossible to escape the long-term consequences of distorted markets, reckless bubble-seeking Fed Chairmen, repressively low interest rates that penalize saving and lower the bar for productive investment, a self-serving financial system, and bailouts that remove all consequences for misallocating capital that could otherwise create jobs and raise living standards.

Lastly, while the S&P 500 Index climbed to yet another multi-year high on Monday, Hussman noted that his firm’s “primary risk estimates are now in the worst 0.5% of what we observe in historical data.”  As a result, the evidence suggests that now is an especially risky time to be invested in the broader equity markets.

As for gold stocks, which Hussman has generally viewed as a safe haven asset class, his Strategic Total Return fund has a relatively small position at less than 5% of assets.

Source; http://www.goldalert.com/2012/03/misguided-semi-psychotic-fed-policies-fueling-bubble-in-risky-assets/

Survey Participants Look For Gold Prices To Bounce Next Week

The largest bloc of voters in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey look for gold prices to move higher next week, although this is less than a majority since a fifth of the respondents are neutral or look for prices to be roughly flat.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, 11 see prices up, while eight see prices down and five see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.

Curiously, those looking for both higher and lower prices cited technical-chart considerations for their expectations. Several traders and analysts said they expect a bounce since they view gold as oversold technically in the short term and likely to have found some support at this week’s 10-week low.

“I was impressed with Thursday's strong ‘bounce’ off the $1,627 low,” said Ken Morrison, founder and editor of the online newsletter Morrison on the Markets, who looks for gold to reach $1,700 again. “Technically, it had two things going for it. That's the exact 62% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the end-December low to the end-February high and it occurred on high volume, evidence of seller's capitulation. We've also seen a healthy liquidation of longs in the past 2-3 weeks that should remove some of the overhead selling pressure on rallies.”

Those looking for more declines, however, say they expect a continuation of the weak technical momentum lately with gold still not able to mount a re-challenge of the $1,700 area.

Source; http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_march23.2012.html

Analysts Look For Gold To Recapture Some Lost Technical Momentum

(Kitco News) - Analysts look for the momentum to shift in gold’s favor next week, particularly now that the metal gained some technical traction this week by bouncing from a chart area that is now being viewed as nearby support.

They tended to list their short-term views largely on the basis of chart analysis, since positive news on the U.S. economy lately has been construed as negative for gold by reducing the probability of further monetary easing in the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, some said, there is always the potential for a headline to suddenly break and prompt a new safety flight into gold, such as any escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 37 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, 11 see prices up, while eight see prices down and five see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. 

A bounce on Friday enabled gold prices to post a rise for the past week. The most-active April gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange closed Friday at $1,662.40 an ounce, up $6.60 since last Friday. May silver settled at $32.272 an ounce, down 33.2 cents for the week.

Traders will continue to monitor U.S. economic data for clues on what to expect for monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economic calendar next week includes consumer confidence on Tuesday, durable-goods orders Wednesday, initial jobless claims and gross domestic product Thursday, then personal income and spending, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and consumer sentiment on Friday.

Stronger reports, on balance, coupled with commentary from Fed policy-makers have diminished expectations for a third round of quantitative easing in the U.S., which in turn played a major role in gold’s declines so far this month. So should the data suddenly start to soften again, traders could start wondering if quantitative easing is still possible after all.

Further, some say the recent selling pressure may be due to abate.

One hedge-fund manager characterized gold as “very oversold” after a decline of 9% for the month as of the low from Thursday. He suggested the $1,627.50 bottom from the Thursday session should now act as chart support, particularly given the nearly $40 bounce from there to Friday’s session high of $1,666.30.

“I’m a little bit on the positive side for next week,” said Mike Zarembski, senior commodities analyst with optionsXpress. “I look for a potential test of the $1,700 range if we get a little bit of momentum to end the week today. I would say it would be more technical in nature. We’ll have to see how the fundamentals develop.”

Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, also looks for gold to rise on the basis of technicals but added that it may well gain fundamental strength as well.

“The way it bounced after yesterday’s low signals strength,” he said. In particular, new interest in the metal can be expected if it keeps advancing toward $1,690, he continued. Some traders may be afraid to “test the waters” yet after the recent decline, but may become more confident about the upside if gold approaches $1,700, he explained.

Meanwhile, there is potential for gold to draw a safe-haven bid if Middle East geopolitical tensions heat up—particularly involving Iran and its nuclear program—and any flare-up in sovereign-debt concerns in Europe and the U.S.

“There are too many things going on in the world right now that would warrant upside gold moves,” Haberkorn said, suggesting $2,000 is still possible this year. “There are too many shoes that could drop right now.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Preston, senior market analyst with Heritage West Financial, expects more chart-based weakness in the near term.

“I consider myself a long-term bull in the gold market but I am short-term bearish,” he said.

He watches Middle East events “like farmers follow the weather in the Midwest,” and he considers geopolitical concerns in the region to be a factor that could suddenly propel gold higher. He also is in the camp that still expects some type of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve.

“But in the short term, I have to let the technicals guide my tactical decisions,” he said. “With prices being capped under $1,700 and a tight trading range for the last week, that tells me that the sell-off after Bernanke’s speech about two and one-half weeks ago shifted the momentum from a technical perspective for now. With prices capped below $1,700, I would look for a short-term move back below $1,600. If we take out this week’s low, I would look for a move down to $1,575 to $1,580.”

Technically, gold remains below most of its most closely followed moving averages.

“The area from $1,685 to $1,689 will be a real key area to get above,” said Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures. Shortly ahead of the pit close, the 200-day average for April gold stood at $1,685.10 and the 20-day average at $1,689.80. “In the next week, those are big numbers,” Nedoss said.

Source; http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120323AS.html

Gold Price Retreats, Markets Fall on Weak Chinese Data

GOLD PRICE NEWS – The gold price retreated $18.25, or 1.1%, to $1,631.97 per ounce Thursday morning amid U.S. dollar strength and widespread liquidation in the commodities complex.  With the sell-off, the price of gold reached its lowest level since January 15 and cut its year-to-date gain to just 4.4%.  Silver dropped alongside the gold price, by $0.74, or 2.3%, to $31.44 per ounce.

Financial markets across the globe declined after the latest reading on manufacturing activity in China – the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March – fell to 48.1.  In doing so, Chinese PMI came in below the 50 level – separating expansion from contraction – for the fifth straight month, the longest stretch since March 2009.

On Wednesday the gold price traded between $1,640 and $1,660 per ounce for the sixth consecutive session, before settling fractionally higher at $1,650.22 per ounce.  The price of gold oscillated between gains and losses amid a relatively quiet day on Wall Street.  While the gold price stabilized, the U.S. dollar inched higher against a basket of the world’s most liquid currencies.

Silver posted a slight gain alongside the gold price yesterday, rising 0.2% to $32.18 per ounce.  Since tumbling from near $37 in late February to below $33 in early March, silver has largely consolidated between the $32 and $33 levels in recent weeks.  On a month-to-date basis, the price of gold and silver are now lower by 3.6% and 10.3%, respectively.

Gold shares continued to languish on Wednesday, with the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dipping 0.3% to $49.73 per share.  Since March 1st the GDX has fallen by 10.0%, and by 3.1% in 2012.  Notable decliners yesterday included Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Newmont Mining (NEM).  AEM slipped 1.4% to $33.10 per share while NEM retreated 1.0% to $53.17 per share.

The broader U.S. equity markets held steady as well yesterday, with the S&P 500 Index holding near a multi-year high above 1,400.  Concurrent with the markets’ stability has been a further decline in investor risk aversion, as evidenced by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropping 2.9% to 15.13.  The less nervous environment has prompted investors to sell investments tied to the gold price – generally viewed as safe havens – in favor of cyclically-sensitive stocks and commodities.

Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner attributed the recent gold price weakness to an improved outlook for the U.S. economy.  In a note to clients, Brebner wrote that “For me, the market is starting to look at conditions as being more normal. Obviously, the evidence is the equity markets in particular and the S&P 500 … and the fact that we are in a bit of a pause on monetary policy.”

“Any of the big central bankers seem like they are stepping back a bit,” the Deutsche Bank analyst added.  “Are conditions going to be more normal? Is the economy going to be able to operate without the support of ultra accommodative policy?…There is sufficient perception that maybe that could be in fact the case that we are seeing some pressure on the gold price.”

However, despite the shorter-term headwinds facing the yellow metal, Brebner predicted that the gold price will rebound modestly over the course of the year.  Furthermore, he noted that Deutsche Bank recently reiterated its year-end gold price target of $1,825 per ounce.

Source; http://www.goldalert.com/2012/03/gold-price-retreats-markets-fall-on-weak-chinese-data/

Comex Gold Lower, Hits 9-Week Low, Amid Bearish "Outside Markets"

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures prices are solidly lower and have hit a fresh nine-week low in early trading Thursday. Fresh near-term chart damage has been inflicted and the bears are in near-term technical control. Some fresh, weak economic data from China and the European Union have the market place in a “risk off” mode early Thursday. The key “outside markets” are also bearish for the precious metals Thursday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil prices are lower. April gold last traded down $16.20 at $1,634.10 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $16.00 an ounce at $1,634.50.  May Comex silver last traded down $.402 at $31.825 an ounce.

Traders are taking a more risk-averse posture Thursday in the wake of fresh, weak manufacturing news coming out of China, which was followed by a weak economic report coming from the European Union Thursday. There has been a string of weaker data coming out of commodity-consuming juggernaut China, and that has the commodity market bulls a bit worried. And the weak economic data from the EU raises fears that bloc could slip into recession. Thus, the world stock and commodity markets, including gold and silver, are feeling selling pressure Thursday.

The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading Thursday. That’s also a negative for the precious metals. Meantime, crude oil prices are trading lower, which is also bearish for today’s price action in gold and silver. These two major markets will continue to have at least some daily influence over the precious metals markets.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the housing price index and leading economic indicators.

The London A.M. gold fixing was $1,636.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,649.25.

Technically, gold futures bears have downside near-term technical momentum and gained more Thursday as prices fell to a fresh nine-week low and are also in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls’ next near-term upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above technical resistance at this week’s high of $1,670.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,640.00 and then at $1,650.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,631.60 and then at $1,625.00.

May silver futures prices are also in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and prices are poised to take out solid chart support at last week’s low of $31.625, which would also produce fresh chart damage. Silver bears have downside technical momentum. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $33.09 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below major psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at the overnight high of $32.35. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $31.625 and then at $31.00.

Source; http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120322JW_am.html

PRECIOUS-Gold ends flat, down 3 percent for the week

(Rewrites, updates comment, market activity, adds byline and
second dateline) 
    * Gold pressured by India raising import duties
    * Bullion posts second-biggest weekly drop, down 3 pct
    * Gold could fall below $1,600 before recovering
    * Coming up: U.S. housing starts on Tuesday

    By Frank Tang and Amanda Cooper 
    NEW YORK/LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - Gold was largely
unchanged on Friday, but posted its second-biggest weekly
decline this year due to an early week drop after the Federal
Reserve withheld additional easing amid a string of encouraging
U.S. economic data. 
    The metal fell 1 percent earlier in the session after top
gold consumer India said it would double import duties on
bullion. 

 Oil's rally, the dollar's weakness and higher U.S. consumer
prices in February prompted gold investors to cover short
positions from earlier this week. 
    Some funds might have exited the gold trade after the S&P
500 stock index this week hit 1,400 for the first time in
four years after a strong run of U.S. job and manufacturing data
confirmed a decent pace of economic recovery. 
    The metal's 3 percent slide this week removed gains in
January based on expectations of further U.S. monetary easing.
The Fed offered few clues this week on any further action after
it said in late January it would keep rates near zero for the
next few years.  
    With bullion now trading well below its long-term
technical support, gold could extend losses in the short term
before recovering, analysts said.    
    "Every retracement within this bull trend (since 2001) has
managed to find a floor close to the 55-week average," said Tom
Fitzpatrick, analyst at CitiFX, Citigroup's technical research
unit. 
    In the next few weeks, gold could test a low at $1,580 an
ounce, which could set the stage for another leg higher,
Fitzpatrick said. 
    Spot gold eased 0.1 percent at $1,656.54 an ounce by
2:53 p.m. EDT (1853 GMT). 
    U.S. April gold futures settled down $3.70 at
$1,657.50 an ounce. Volume was largely in line with its 30-day
average but lower than its previous session, preliminary Reuters
data showed. 
    U.S. inflation data for February showed consumer prices rose
by the most in 10 months as the cost of gasoline spiked, but
there was little sign that underlying inflation pressures were
building up.  
    Also weighing on gold this week was a rise in 10-year U.S.
Treasury yields, a gauge for short-term U.S. interest rates,
which topped 2.3 percent, their biggest one-week rise since
early July 2011. 
    Silver is the only precious metal that ended higher for the
day, but it was down 4.5 percent for the week. The weekly
decline may have set the stage for even steeper losses with a
potential drop to $27.50 an ounce, analysts said.  
  
    Barclays Capital technical analysts said silver had been in
the process of unwinding its oversold condition. But with
silver's break below $33.25. they said silver has reverted the
trend and is targeting $30 per ounce.   
    Silver was up 0.2 percent on the day at $32.56 an
ounce. 
     
    INDIA HIKES BULLION DUTIES  
    Gold imports to India, the world's top importer, are likely
to fall significantly in 2012 as the government's decision to
double import duty to 4 percent is seen squeezing local demand,
especially for jewelry, industry officials said.  
    Bombay Bullion Association President Prithviraj Kothari said
the increase would prompt a rise in smuggled gold and impact the
jewelry sector more than the investment sector. 
   
    "We will have to wait and see how (the import duty) works
but from the outlines we are seeing, it will be slightly bearish
for gold in the immediate future," MKS Finance head of trading
Afshin Nabavi said. 
    Platinum fell 0.6 percent to $1,670.24 an ounce, 
while palladium was down 0.5 percent on the day at
$697.22. 
 2:53 PM EDT     LAST/    NET   PCT      LOW    HIGH  CURRENT
                SETTLE   CHNG  CHNG                       VOL
 US Gold APR   1655.80  -3.70  -0.2  1639.70 1664.90  146,090
 US Silver MAY  32.604 -0.122  -0.4   32.135  32.755   34,971
 US Plat APR   1675.50  -8.40  -0.5  1664.20 1693.20    5,215
 US Pall JUN    701.70  -8.20  -1.2   697.80  708.25    1,455
 
 Gold          1656.54  -1.19  -0.1  1640.18 1664.40         
 Silver         32.560  0.060   0.2   32.140  32.720
 Platinum      1670.24  -9.64  -0.6  1667.50 1690.00
 Palladium      697.22  -3.83  -0.5   698.98  704.72
 
 TOTAL MARKET              VOLUME          30-D ATM VOLATILITY
                CURRENT   30D AVG  250D AVG   CURRENT     CHG
 US Gold        176,376   185,194   193,964     19.54   -0.67
 US Silver       41,383    68,514    73,884      32.8   -0.38
 US Platinum      6,791     8,446     8,312     23.94    0.44
 US Palladium     1,459     5,348     4,684                  
 
  
 (Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)

Source; http://finance.yahoo.com/news/precious-gold-ends-flat-down-195654643.html 

Survey Participants Torn As This Week's Gold Survey Shows No Majority

With none of the three categories in this week’s Kitco News Gold Survey earning more than half the total of number of participants, there is no clear majority outlook for next week’s trend in the gold market, although there are a few more bulls than bears or neutral participants.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 21 responded this week. Of those 21 participants, nine see prices up, while seven see prices down, and five are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

Survey participants who are bullish said that the recent break in prices is finding support at current levels, with gold likely to rebound to test $1,700 an ounce, perhaps as soon as next week. A few suggested that some market participants may consider taking profits in the current rally in equities and buy gold at these reduced levels, which will support prices. 

Those who are bearish are generally citing technical-chart patterns for the move, suggesting that the current weakness is not quite over yet. Many suggest that gold futures prices will find support in the $1,625 to $1,600 area.

The volatile price swings continue to keep a few survey participants on the sidelines, waiting for clearer directions to be established.

Frank Lesh, futures analyst at FuturePath Trading, said gold will be trapped in a wide range for the intermediate term, with $1,600 the lowest support and $1,760 the highest ceiling, and is calling for a sideways trade. “The bond markets and gold were spooked by the threat of rising interest rates and potential loss of the easy money that the Fed has been providing to the markets. Dollar strength - that will come with rising interest rates - will remain a problem for gold….Interest rates will not be rising any time soon, but this past week tells us how powerful that threat will be….Futures traders will now use gold as a short-term trade rather than a position trade,” he said.

Source; http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_march16.2012.html

Sell-Off in Gold Intensifies, GDX Drops 4.6%.

The recent weakness in gold shares escalated on Wednesday as gold futures plunged to fresh 2-month lows.  The sell-off was driven by broad-based liquidation in precious metals and further strength in the U.S. dollar.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) dropped $2.39, or 4.6%, to $49.72 per share in afternoon trading, while COMEX gold futures sunk $51.30, or 3.0%, to $1,642.90 per ounce.

With its decline, the GDX reached its lowest level since December 29, 2011 and came within 1.0% of its 52-week low.  On a year-to-date basis, the GDX turned lower by 3.3% and continues to significantly underperform the yellow metal – which has risen 4.9% in 2012.

Notable gold miners moving lower on Wednesday included Eldorado Gold (EGO), Kinross Gold (KGC), and New Gold (NGD).  EGO fell by 6.2% to $13.28, KGC by 6.5% to $9.85, and NGD by 4.4% to $9.53 per share.

Source; http://www.goldalert.com/2012/03/sell-off-in-gold-intensifies-gdx-drops-4-6/

Comex Gold Ends Sharply Lower, At 2-Month Low, As Fresh Near-Term Technical Damage Inflicted

(Kitco News) - Comex gold futures prices ended the U.S. day session sharply lower, near the daily low and careened to a fresh two-month low Wednesday. The precious yellow metal saw strong follow-through selling pressure from Tuesday afternoon’s downdraft that was prompted by an upbeat FOMC statement and by news J.P. Morgan declared a dividend after a successful stress test result. Fresh, significant near-term technical damage has been inflicted on the gold and silver charts. April gold last traded down $56.60 at $1,637.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $15.10 an ounce at $1,660.50.  May Comex silver last traded down $1.931 at $31.68 an ounce.

(NOTE: I am doing a free educational webinar for Kitco Thursday at midday. It will be a tutorial on how basic technical analysis can improve upon your trading/investment methods. As with all my work, the webinar will be in “plain English” and easy to understand for all market watchers.—Jim)

The safe-haven gold market has taken a big hit following the Tuesday afternoon release of the statement following the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed acknowledged an improving U.S. economy with still-low inflation expectations. The statement further squelched talk the Fed will implement another round of what would likely be commodity-market-bullish quantitative easing. The precious metals got a second punch Tuesday afternoon when J.P. Morgan announced it had passed the government’s stress testing and was declaring a dividend as well as paying back a big chunk of government loans. Investor risk appetite has up-ticked significantly following Tuesday afternoon’s developments, which has hurt gold and also the safe-haven U.S. Treasury market.

The U.S. dollar index traded higher Wednesday and hit a fresh seven-week high. That was also bearish for the precious metals markets Wednesday. The dollar index bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently. Meantime, the crude oil market was weaker Wednesday, which was a slight negative for the metals. Crude oil and the dollar index will continue to be key “outside market” forces impacting the precious metals prices on a daily basis.

The European Union sovereign debt crisis has eased recently, which is also allowing investor risk appetite to grow. The Greek private sector/government debt swap arrangement was endorsed by EU politicians on Monday. There has also been positive German economic news out this week. EU government bond yields have also pulled back a bit recently. However, now that the latest Greek hurdle has been cleared the market place attention will soon turn to other EU trouble spots, such as Portugal and/or Spain. The overall EU debt crisis remains a major underlying bullish factor for safe-haven gold.

The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,644.25 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,690.00.

Technically, April gold futures prices closed near the session low Wednesday and dropped to a fresh two-month low as fresh chart damage was inflicted. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above psychological resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,650.00 and then at 1,675.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,635.80 and then at $1,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May silver futures prices closed near the session low Wednesday and hit a fresh seven-week low. Significant near-term chart damage was inflicted in silver Wednesday. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $34.41 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below major psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at $32.49. Next support is seen at today’s low of $31.625 and then at $31.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May N.Y. copper closed down 625 points 384.00 cents Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the copper market Wednesday as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. Copper bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 370.25 cents. First resistance is seen at 387.75 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 381.70 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source; http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20120314JW_pm.html

Fed nods to better economy, mum on next mo

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday provided few clues on the prospects for further monetary easing, offering just a slight upgrade to its economic outlook while restating concerns about the high level of unemployment.

The central bank said it expects "moderate" growth over coming quarters with the unemployment rate declining gradually; in January, it said it expected "modest" growth.

It also said a recent spike in energy costs would likely push up inflation, but only temporarily. Over a longer stretch, the Fed said inflation would likely run at or below the its 2 percent target.

"Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated," the central bank said in a statement after a one-day meeting.

U.S. stocks held gains after the statement and moved higher on news JPMorgan Chase would increase its dividend.

The dollar, meanwhile, hit a fresh 11-month high against the yen, and prices for U.S. government bonds slipped as traders trimmed bets on further bond-buying, or quantitative easing, from the Fed.

"The statement ... reflects a further decrease in the odds of further quantitative easing resulting from better recent data," said Troy Davig at Barclays Capital in New York.

In a further nod to a somewhat brighter outlook, policymakers said financial market strains from the European sovereign debt crisis had eased, although they continued to pose "significant" risks. The policymakers also characterized business investment as rising; in January, they noted it had slowed.

As widely expected, the Fed reiterated its expectation that overnight interest rates would remain near zero until at least through late 2014 and that it would continue its program to reweight its portfolio toward longer-term securities. That program, known as "Operation Twist," expires at the end of June.

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker dissented against the decision because he did not expect economic conditions to warrant ultra-low rates until late 2014. In January, he had dissented against the decision to offer a time frame for the first expected rate hike.

The Fed cut overnight interest rates to near zero in December 2008 and has since bought $2.3 trillion in bonds to boost growth. Financial markets are trying to gauge whether policymakers may take fresh steps to stimulate the economy in coming months.

EASING AHEAD?

A quickening in the pace of U.S. jobs growth and a sharp drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent from 9.1 percent in August has led some analysts to rein in their expectations for a further easing of monetary policy.

A report on Tuesday showed retail sales posted their largest gain in five months in February, the latest data to suggest the economic recovery is on a more solid footing.

Even so, Fed officials are uncertain whether the progress in reducing unemployment can be maintained given still-sluggish economic growth, and many economists believe the central bank will launch another round of bond buying later in the year.

In a poll on Friday of firms that trade directly with the Fed, 14 of 18 economists anticipated further quantitative easing. That survey was taken after the government said the economy created more than 200,000 jobs for the third month running in February.

Analysts are looking to the Fed's two-day meetings in April and June for decisions about any new direction for policy. At both meetings, Bernanke will hold a news conference and officials will make public updated economic and interest rate projections.

Most economists think the economy will expand at about a 2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in January it would normally take a growth pace of between 2 percent and 2.5 percent just to hold the jobless rate steady.

While the economic recovery is nearly three years old, officials lament that the United States is still far from full employment. Although the jobless rate has fallen significantly over the last six months, it remains stubbornly high.

Source; http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/14/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE82C09D20120314

BELILAH EMAS SEKARANG!!! WAHAI SAHABATKU

Assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera,

Wahai para peminat emas, sekarang adalah waktu terbaik untuk melabur emas jika dibandingkan dengan naik-turunnya graf emas pada hari-hari yang lepas.

Pakar-pakar penganalisis emas telah membuat jangkaan bahawa emas akan melonjak kepada USD3000/aun sehingga USD5000/aun. Bayangkan jika benar-benar terjadi demikian!!!

Emas berada di tahap USD1692/aun dan beberapa hari yang lepas, emas jatuh ke USD1665/usd dari tahap tertinggi bulan Febuari USD1790/aun.

Emas pernah capai USD1920/aun pada Ogos tahun 2011, dan ini tidak mustahil ia akan kembali lagi bahkan lebih tinggi lagi.

BERTINDAKLAH SEKARANG!!!

Gold snaps 3-day loss, Greek debt fears linger

 

(Reuters) - Gold regained some ground on Wednesday as jewellers in Asia snapped up the metal after prices dropped 2 percent in the previous session, but investors were cautious because of lingering fears about a possible Greek default.

Worries that Greece may not secure a deal with private creditors to cut its debt by the Thursday deadline spurred selling in shares, but pressure from the equity market was offset by a bounce in the euro and physical gold offtake.

Spot gold added $2.92 to $1,676.86 per ounce by 0240 GMT, having hit a low of $1,663.95 on Tuesday, the weakest since January 25. Bullion struck a record around $1,920 per ounce last September.

"Basically gold and other risky assets are all being lumped together. Nobody is really looking at individual fundamentals. They are just buying the dollar and pretty much selling everything else," said Nick Trevethan, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ in Singapore. "The markets are very worried about risk, and for the time being, gold has been painted as a risk asset. The downside potential for gold is $1,650-$1,660. I am not sure if it's going to happen today as we are starting to see decent physical buying at these lower numbers."

U.S. gold for April delivery rose 0.33 percent to $1,677.70 per ounce.

Shares in Asia slipped for a third consecutive session on Wednesday as investors grew more risk averse, with uncertainty over Greece's bailout and mounting worries about slowing global economies overshadowing support provided by ample liquidity.

The euro stood at $1.3112, having struck a three-week low at $1.3101. A clutch of Greek pension funds and some foreign investors are still holding back on the bond swap deal, prompting Athens to warn that it will force losses on those who do not sign up.

"There's bargain-buying. Jewellery makers are still buying, but they are not that aggressive. Premiums for gold bars are now at $1 to $1.50 because of the purchases," said a dealer in Hong Kong, who offered gold bars at around $1 last week.

"I think the market is waiting for U.S. non-farm payroll data for clues on whether the United States will launch QE3," said the dealer, referring to a possible third bond-buying programme to lower interest rates.

But The U.S. economy likely recorded a third month of solid job gains in February, which could further reduce the chances of additional monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Labor Department is due to release the February employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT)

In Singapore, physical dealers also noted buying from jewellers in the region.

"Indonesia continues to buy gold in small volumes and we saw good buying from the Far East last night," said a dealer in Singapore, who offered bullion at premiums of 70 cents to $1 to London prices.
In the energy market, U.S. crude oil futures were steady in post-settlement trading after news that major powers had accepted Iran's offer for talks about its disputed nuclear programme, easing concern about supply disruptions.

Precious metals prices 0240 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume
Spot Gold 1676.86 2.92 +0.17 7.23
Spot Silver 32.90 -0.01 -0.03 18.82
Spot Platinum 1622.00 13.01 +0.81 16.44
Spot Palladium 673.00 9.28 +1.40 3.14
COMEX GOLD APR2 1677.70 5.60 +0.33 7.08 8453
COMEX SILVER MAY2 32.95 0.17 +0.51 18.04 1515
Euro/Dollar 1.3141
Dollar/Yen 80.79
COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months

Source; http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/03/07/markets-gold-silver-idINDEE82600F20120307