Most participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey expect gold prices to rise next week, but stay roughly in the current price range.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 13 see prices up, while seven see prices down, and four are neutral on prices. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical chart analysts.
Overall there are more participants bullish on prices than bearish or neutral; however, there are nearly as many in the combined bearish/neutral column as the bullish column.
Those who see prices higher said momentum is continuing to carry gold prices up, along with underlying accommodative monetary policy.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS Finance, said gold prices should continue to rise, although stay in a range. “There is good bargain hunting as gold dips below $1,710 area,” he said.
Views on the how eurozone sovereign debt issue will affect gold are mixed across the board, which underlies how tricky that situation is to understand and price into the market. There are differing views on whether the completion of the Greek debt deal with the private sector is bullish or bearish for gold. Some see the deal as bullish for gold as it adds stability and could mean a turning point that the eurozone may finally be grappling with the situation. Others have said it’s bearish because it lessens the need for gold as a safe-haven.
Further, there are differing views on whether next week’s meeting of European Union officials will support or weaken gold prices. EU officials have just requested more austerity from the Greeks and there is concern this last-minute request will hamper the country from getting its much-needed loan in mid-March.
Those who are bearish said they think the market is ripe for a pullback, particularly as it hasn’t had much of a correction since the start of this year. Others point to some technical chart developments that suggest gold is due for a retracement.
Frank Lesh, analyst FuturePath Trading, said gold is not acting like a safe haven. “Markets change and evolve and right now gold is trading more like a currency than the safe haven it once was. It’s correlation with the dollar (negative) and euro (positive) is very strong. It is also trading as a risk asset as well and this is evident as it rises and falls with equity markets now. Gold is correcting the rally from the 1520’s to the 1760’s. I expect more consolidative trade with a downside bias,” he said.
The few participants who are neutral offer similar reasoning as those who are bearish – that the market has rallied sharply in a short amount of time. That is more a reason to be on the sidelines as the overall fundamentals remain sound.
Generally, most participants overall see gold in a rough range of $1,700 to $1,750 an ounce.
Source; http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_february10.2012.html
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