There’s a lack of definite consensus in for survey participants the
Kitco News Gold Survey in their outlook for prices next week, with
bullish and bearish traders largely split.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 22
responded this week. Of those 22 participants, 10 see prices up, while
eight see prices down, and four are neutral. Market participants
include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money
managers and technical-chart analysts.
Most participants who see higher prices next week cite the
lower-than-expected U.S. unemployment figures released Friday as a
reason to think the Federal Reserve may be seek to launch a third round
of quantitative easing sooner than later.
Interestingly, those who see lower prices also cite the jobs
data, but have a different view, suggesting that gold’s inability to
rally on the poor data means the market will likely test the downside.
Also, a few who see weaker prices said renewed worries from Europe,
particularly ahead of the weekend elections in France and Greece will
be problematic for gold. Voters are likely to turn away from austerity
programs in Europe, which will pressure the euro currency and support
the U.S. dollar, weighing on gold.
Frank Lesh, futures analyst at FuturePath Trading, said he sees
the gold market trade as sideways with a downward bias, based on
technical charts. There’s little fundamental news to push the market
out, either.
“Uncertainty about the economies of the U.S., Europe, and
China, and their interest rate policies will keep these markets in a
holding pattern until there is more clarity. I do see that investment
demand is not as strong as it used to be and this is because no one has
made any money holding positions long this year. Most futures traders
are now content to trade this market, long or short, and not hold
positions,” Lesh said.
Those who are neutral on gold cite the fact the market remains
trapped in the range it has carved out for the past several weeks and
see no reason that gold will break out.
“The June (gold futures) contract was unable to follow-through
on its bullish technical patterns from last week. The likely range is
between $1,623 and $1,672,” said Darin Newsom Telvent DTN senior
analyst.
Source; http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_may04.2012.html
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